Economics after the Crash - A Discipline in Need of Renewal?
Part 2
A couple of weeks ago, the New York Review of Books Foundation held a conference about economics. The title of the conference was “What’s Wrong with the Economy and with Economics?” The conference featured academics and public intellectuals giving short talks and engaging in debates about modern day macro-economic trends. All the videos from the conference are available on the NYRB site.
The next video from the NYRB conference I watched featured one of the most prominent economist/public intellectuals of the day, Paul Krugman. Along with Benjamin Friedman of Harvard and Lord Skidelsky of the University of Warwick and House of Lords, this panel primarily addressed the question of economics and economists in the last 7 years since the financial crisis.
All three panelists did a great job of digging into some of the assumptions and biases in economics that keep it from being a true science and from advancing the public's understanding of the role of money, power and value in society. From age-old criticisms like econ's inability to conduct true causal analysis, to its over-reliance on mathematical models, to the complete inability of economics to understand and model power, the talks and discussion were very fascinating.
It was clear, to me, that Krugman's years as an Op-Ed writer have served him well in developing his ability to construct arguments using analogies, kitchy turns of phrase and emotionally grounded appeals that make him far more effective in this type of forum than his contemporaries. I'm sure some, more technical, watchers of the field might see that as a detriment to his role as an economist (don't forget though, that he won a Clark and a Nobel in the field) but I find it an asset that the field could do more with.
Overall, a really strong discussion, featuring some very salient points and worth the time it took to watch it.
The Problem of Value - Economics as a Moral Science
A couple of weeks ago, the New York Review of Books Foundation held a conference about economics. The title of the conference was “What’s Wrong with the Economy and with Economics?” The conference featured academics and public intellectuals giving short talks and engaging in debates about modern day macro-economic trends. All the videos from the conference are available on the NYRB site.
I started by watching a panel on The Problem of Value: Economics as a Moral Science. This video features a panel moderated by Itamar Rabinovich, with talks by Greta Brochmann from the University of Oslo, Richard Sennett of NYU and Jeremy Waldron also of NYU. Each speaker gave a short talk on their interpretation of the place of "value" in economic analysis. They all had different takes on the topic, but each I enjoyed.
I liked Brochmann's talk the best because it presented the most concise and comprehensive review of Scandinavian welfare societies I've ever come across. She had a great model to present about how the Scandinavian model came to be. What values from its past it incorporated, how it is being challenged in modern day Norway, Sweden, etc and the onset of immigration and their new relationship with the EU. Her approach to this question was much more tactical and micro-econ based, but I think it made the strongest case for the inclusion of moralistic frameworks in econ policy by the state. Econ is often characterized as a faceless, emotionless, humanity-less science - but if framed properly it can be undeniably human, touching every part of the human experience in modern society.
Richard Sennett's talk was also interesting but for a different reason. He focused on the effect of new economic forces on young people's valuation and formation of a career and life. This is a particularly pertinent topic for me, at the start of my career. And although I agree with him that things are very different now than they have been ever before (for new members of the workforce), I didn't come away with some new understanding of how economics was going to help address these changes.
I look forward to checking out some of the other panels in the next few days.
Kendrick Lamar - To Pimp a Butterfly
Earlier this week, Kendrick Lamar released his much anticipated and long-awaited follow up to "good kid, m.A.A.d city," called "To Pimp a Butterfly." The album has been showered with early praise. Lamar has done a few interviews, including this one in the New York Times that situates him among "prophetic witnesses" like Sam Cooke, Marvin Gaye, and Curtis Mayfield.
I've listened to the album a handful of times in the last couple of days and it has yet to lose its effect. Albums (or films, or books, or really anything) that are highly anticipated often don't live up to the hype. There have been only a few moments in the last few years when something I have high expectations for ends up meeting and surpassing those expectations. After whetting my appetite earlier this year with "Blacker the Berry" and "Untitled" (performed only on Colbert Report), Lamar has accomplished a rare and difficult feat; his album has met and surpassed high expectations.
Aesthetically, the album delivers. Lamar invites legends like George Clinton, flows over beats by Flying Lotus, invites sublime singers like Lalah Hathaway, samples Sufjan Stevens and brings in some of the best jazz riffs I've heard in hip hop in a while. The album is well-balanced, it ebbs and flows to keep your attention but doesn't seem to compromise in production quality. Each track stands well on its own but is elevated as an ensemble album.
But that is only the honey with which Lamar attracts the listener. Behind this beautiful music is the story of Kendrick Lamar in the last few years. His battles with depression, survivor's guilt, success, fame and the strong weight of responsibility as he has become more famous and more powerful. Lamar is the post-modern artist we've been blessed with. Like James Baldwin in his time, Lamar struggles out loud with the contradictions in his life. With his inability to draw a clear narrative arc through his upbringing in Compton and now his new found success as an internationally touring artist. And like Baldwin, and Langston Hughes and other worthy comparisons, Lamar expresses all of these feelings in his poetry. And like those predecessors, Lamar isn't interested in distancing himself from his upbringing, even though his life now couldn't be any more different. Lamar is trying, with all his might, to take what he's been given, think and write critically about what that means for him, for his community, and come up with some answers about how he can bring all this back together. The prophetic preachers of soul and hip hop's past have been fighting this battle from the pulpit of fame for generations.
This album has signs of maturity that were not present in "good kid, m.A.A.d city." If that album was a day in the life of 25 year old Lamar, this album is deeper look at a young adult coming to terms with growing up. He struggles, at once, with being a hypocrite, but also needing to build self-confidence to survive in a competitive world. These struggles are not too different from what Kanye West has been going through in recent years. But Kanye's resolution has been different. His focus has been on high art and on high culture. Kendrick, on the other hand, is squarely situated in popular culture. For my money, I'd much rather hear a man describe his struggle for meaning in every day life than trying to find meaning in some higher, more philosophical milieu.
Knausgaard on immigration
In part 2 of Karl Ove Knausgaard's NYTimes magazine feature, the author - most famously of a 6-part memoir - writes about immigration. His assignment has been to trace the paths that Vikings and early Norwegians took in America, first arriving in Newfoundland and then settling in mainland America.
Karl Ove is still uncomfortable in America. He's still unsure what to even make of his journey. But one thing is clear, his time in America is going to be spent as a Norwegian and will most likely be limited. That emotional distance allows him to think critically about American culture and American emigration.
This definition of culture, especially in the context of an American immigrant trying to assimilate, rung very true for me.
What is culture, if not a set of prejudices? A set of unformulated and unconscious rules and ways of behavior that every member of a given society nonetheless immediately recognizes and accepts?
Karl Ove is thinking of and writing about his ancestors and older family members settling here. This is exactly the kind of cultural shift I went through as an immigrant. In fact, my family and I ended up at the end of that transition absorbing all manner of American prejudices, a lot of which were targeted right back at Indian-American immigrants. That's something about immigrant communities I have never understood - how quick we are to put down other immigrants behind us in the assimilation process. What a shame, that we can't extend courtesy and comfort to our compatriots, the same that we were denied merely a few years before.
ISIS follow up - Islamist power in civil war
As a follow up to the ISIS response I posted last week, here's an article that I came across today. The abstract below states the main conceit, which is that Islamists have a structural advantage in selling security services in the conflict security market.
"In civil wars across the world, certain Islamist groups have competed exceptionally well against their rivals. The conventional wisdom points to either religion or ethnic politics to explain Islamist success. These ideological and identity-based explanations, however, tend to overlook the powerful economic influence that the local business class has over civil war outcomes. Civil war can be modeled as a market for security, wherein protection must be purchased from multiple substate rackets. Using this market model, a close investigation of the Somali case reveals why and under what conditions the interests of the profit-driven business class align with those of ideologically motivated Islamist groups. Security costs are of critical importance to businesses in a civil war, and Islamists are uniquely competitive in lowering these costs. The business-Islamist alliance is therefore driven by rational, economic considerations, which can contribute to the rise of Islamist power."
The general point made in this article comes on page 96:
"Because Islamists are able to sell security across ethnic and tribal divisions, however, they can offer more competitive prices than groups that primarily sell protection to a narrower pool of prospective buyers. By charging lower margins across the board,Islamists have the ability to capture a larger share of the security market than ethnic or tribal groups. As their market share increases, they can lower their rates further to price out their rivals. Therefore, not only do Islamist groups give businesses the option to leave coercive relationships with ethnic or tribal protection rackets, but they also offer more competitive prices to do so"
This makes sense to me, and the case study of Somalia illustrates the point pretty well. Although there isn't an official civil war in Syria/Iraq, citizens in the area dealing with ISIS based on rational models makes much more sense than most of the narratives in the media.
On Kanye West and black ambition
Kanye's evolution
Last week, Slate's Arthur Chu wrote a piece called Kanye West Vs. White Mediocrity. This was on the heels of Kanye's latest public appearences at the Grammys and SNL's 40th anniversary. I had an email exchange about the topic that I'll partially share here.
Some of this reminded me of Chris Rock's joke about mediocrity and black people being able to suck. He talks about how Joe Lewis (or someone) was fighting a white boxer and round after round, kicking this guy's ass. And then in like the 13th round he finally knocks him out and wins the fight. When they went to the judges' cards, they had Joe Lewis losing the fight.
There's kind of an interesting argument about resource constraints or opportunity constraints elevating quality. Maybe because there are so few spots for black artists and entertainers, there's an artificial constraint that's created. This, in turn, elevates quality. I mean, I'm all for higher quality, but I think there are more humane ways to achieve rather than racism.
I was thinking this during the SNL-40 show: everyone judges Kanye with a lot of baggage. During his performance I was texting with my sister (a huge Kanye fan), watching Twitter (where my networks are largely white, affluent, self-described liberals) - and I tweeted this. I think Chu addresses this in his article too, he said something like everyone is judging the thing he did last not what he's doing right now.
Perfectionism is exhausting/stressful. For Kanye to strive for perfection, for Michael Jackson to have done that, and Nina Simone, and James Baldwin and so many other people - there's a real cost for this. People are driven into exhaustion, have to leave the country, or worse they pay with their lives. It's really sad that all these artists want is to express themselves, to pursue their art but once they achieve a certain level of fame, perfection is the only option anymore. And then they end up driving themselves into the ground. And we think we're rewarding them with our love and adoration, but we're just feeding their addiction.
I like "whiteness is a roomier identity." That was a nice way of capturing that sentiment.
Overall, I've had a change of heart about Kanye in the last year or so. I used to be the type of guy who'd say "ugh, I loved Kanye when he just stuck to backpack rap. His first few albums were so great. He should've just stuck to being a good producer." I thought I was saying that as a critical consumer of his music, but I was doing exactly what this article is talking about. I was boxing him in, not allowing him to be a full person or a full artist. Now, I'm on board. I'm not uncritical, but I'm along for the ride.
Roxane Gay on Black Ambition
In addition to my thoughts on Kanye, I've been thinking about a piece my sister shared with me by Roxane Gay. By the way, her debut novel An Untamed State knocked me out. In this essay, Gay talks about acheiving success in her career as a writer and educator but never feeling comfortable with it. This is a pretty familiar mental model for me. For all the success I've acheived in life, it never feels like I was meant to be successful. I have to constantly remind myself that I earned the things I've earned. Certainly not without luck, fortune and support, but also not without hard work and tenacity.
Some of these thoughts are present in Kanye's maturation. Kanye, more than any artist I know, is fighting to make his success a normal thing. Sometimes that means he's reaching for bigger, bolder things. Sometimes that means he's allowing himself the freedom that other successful people might have. If Donald Trump and Mitt Romney feel they can run for president because they were successful in private enterprise, Kanye feels similiary that he should be able to try his hand at fashion because of his success as a music producer. I don't know if I agree with that basic approach, but I do support Kanye's ability to do that as much as Trump or Romney are able to.
David Oyelowo on Obama
David Oyelowo had a short interview during his post-Selma press rounds where he mentioned that Obama's presidency has been a boone for Black narratives, actors and projects to get attention. This is not a new idea, but I liked that he got to tell President Obama about it. Despite being a hyper rational guy, I bet it was nice for Obama to hear that.
Maybe Kanye, Roxange Gay, David Oyelowo and Barack Obama can be the models that the next generation of artists, authors, politicians can gather inspiration from.
Some thoughts on newsroom analytics
I recently left my job at Etsy as a data analyst to join the newsroom at the New York Times. In addition to being sad to leave Etsy, and learning a lot in my 2 years there, I'm very excited to work with talented journalists and technologists at the Times to help usher the organization into a new era.
I've only made it to day-2 but I thought I'd take a moment to write down some thoughts about starting on this new endeavor.
Innovation Report and audience development
The team I am joining, Audience Development, was born out of the leaked, and much discussed, innovation report. Taking a hard look at the competitive news industry, the NYT decided to set some difficult goals and make some changes. The business side (subscription, ads, finance) of the organization has long used experiments, data analysis and similar empirical tools to make decisions. The newsroom is working on building up the same competencies for news decisions. Analytics, as it happens, is one of these competencies.
Among the many things I have to learn
What the NYTimes is about and how to think critically about the news consumer. I was able to advocate for the Etsy user pretty well after my 2 years there; thanks in large part to many experiments, user research and tons of data analysis. I would like to learn about and advocate for the NYT news reader in the same way.
How does the NYTimes plan on carrying its success in high quality journalism over to the digital age.
Because I joined the analyst team at Etsy near its beginning, I was helped with a wide variety of projects and products. I think I have a similar opportunity in joining the newsroom analytics team at its beginning at the Times. I'm eager to see what parts of the newsroom could benefit from studying user behavior in making their work better.
Web experiments have had a controversial year, but I still believe they're the best way to assess causality. Finding a smart and appropriate way to bring experiments into the newsroom will be a challenge. At the onset, though, I believe there's a place for it in the newsroom and it can be done successfully.
At Etsy, we were pretty lucky to have clear metrics of success. The more sales we could generate for our sellers, the better. A similar "north star" metric is harder to point out in news consumption. I'm sure many at the Times and in the industry have thought critically about this, but it doesn't seem obvious to me yet. In fact, I think the lack of a clear metric of success is often what derails analytics projects. I'd like to avoid getting derailed by the wrong metrics.
Onward!
I'm excited to take on this challenge. I'm passionate about seeing the NYTimes survive into the digital age. I'm convinced that the type of journalistic expertise the Times has developed over its 150 year history deserves an audience in our new media landscape. And I'm thankful to have learned what I learned in the last 2 years to help me get started.
A few words about my experience at MAPSS, UChicago
Someone approached me on Twitter a few days ago with some questions about MAPSS. We had a short email exchange recently that I thought I'd share on here in case other incoming MAPSS students are interested in learning about my experience there. This is, obviously, just one anecdote about what MAPSS is like, but hopefully readers can gather some insights to inform their decisions or expectations.
Hi [redacted],
1. If you don't mind being frank, when and why did you decide not to pursue a PhD?
2. Did you have a significant quant background before attending MAPSS? I also come from a Poli Sci/Poli Theory background...I was wondering how abrupt and difficult the transition was to more quant-oriented courses.
3. What is your experience of U Chicago's career services and alumni network? Did you avail yourself of those connections?
4. What was your time at MAPSS like? Did you involve yourself in extracurriculars at all? Did you socialize a great deal with your MAPSS Cohort?
5. Do you have any tips or recommendations regarding the MAPSS experience that you would impart to someone beginning the program?